There is finally a regression to the mean. As the tempo of college football exploded, sharps like us were betting a lot of overs in high scoring games. But now the once very strong rule-of-thumb that the higher the total, the more likely it is to go under has returned.

Finally the oddsmakers have caught up and since September 28, 2013 totals of 73 or higher have gone under 22-6. Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) is 74. The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves.