Yes I more than have my doubts that a Miami team that the last two years accomplished a lot more in the minds of the media pundits than they have on the field of having strong back-to-back games.

The Jags have new life under Blake Bortles. With Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns at WR, he has great young pass catchers. Throw in a healthy Cecil Shorts and this offense is all of a sudden respectable.

The Jags defense which underachieved early because they were always on the field has shown major life the last three weeks. Bortles has thrown too many interceptions, but he is a quick read and will continue to progress.

This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.

The specific Performance Gap Analysis pick says that a team with a bad turnover ratio and a very inefficient defense based on yards per point has a big upside is 1172-976-45 with a z-score of 4.19.