True Colt McCoy does not induce confidence, but this is a ton of points for a team with a long history of playing their worst when things are going well and they play a presumed overmatched opponent. Also McCoy is a QB who gets a new life. He gave the team a lift last week and will have enough short-term success.

This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.

Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.

The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.

The specific Performance Gap Analysis pick says that a team with a bad turnover ratio and a very inefficient defense based on yards per point has a big upside is 1173-977-45 including New Orleans last night.

Washington has numbers that suggest they are better than their record shows. They are getting 7.9 yards per pass to teams normally permitting 7.2 and 6.4 yards per play to 5.8 while actually hold teams to .1 yards per play below normal average. Dallas is allowing teams to get .4 yards per play above their normal average.