Betting on underdogs on big losing steak if opponent does not have great against the spread winning percentage is 196-123-4 4.06 z-score. Also this is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.

Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.

Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators. The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.

This is one that you and I keep making a fortune with. A team with a bad turnover ratio and inefficient defense based on yards per point is now 1173-978-45 for +4.17.

KC quarterback Alex Smith injured right shoulder probable but replaced last week over abundance of caution.

Smith became the first NFL quarterback in two seasons to win a game while throwing only one pass more than 10 yards down the field. There is no reason for Kansas City to get aggressive. Jets hold teams to .4 yards per rushing attempt below normal average. This big dog plays defense, while pass protection has been a problem for the Chiefs, who allow more sacks per pass play than all but four other teams.

Mike Vick and Percy Harvin have both tangible and intangible additions to an offense that needs change for the sake of change. And both improve the team.