I see some major fundamentals edges for Iowa State and that's ultimately the decision maker for me in this matchup.
The Pac 12 has been very weak and Colorado already got hammered by Texas with their backups playing. I think Iowa St bounces back from their loss to OKL and also lost their Bowl game last year 33-9 against ND. They will be hungry here for the Ducks.

My philosophy has always been to try and find the team that is more likely to win in the trenches. Iowa St has been more battle tested playing Texas, OKL St and OKL twice.
Control the line of scrimmage and control the game and that is what I expect Iowa St to do here. That's why I put so much emphasis on rushing stats. In this game, Iowa State is better than Oregon both offensively and defensively on that key comparison.
I give the Iowa St Cyclones a bit of a coaching edge and huge QB edge here. Brock Purdy is a very good QB and I expect them to come out strong on Saturday evening.