Despite losing three of four games in the season series, the Hawks only lost by an average of just over two points per game. The Hawks will also have the services of Clint Capella in the paint, which should slow down Adebayo and keep him from his 25-point average against Atlanta this season. The Hawks shot well below their 3pt average in the four games, from 36% to 30%. Even a slight bump in percentage will make a difference in a line like this. While Miami is 27-15 at home this season, they are just 14-25-2 ATS at home. With a playoff spot on the line I expect a tight game throughout tonight.