This is an all-time buy-low, sell-high moment. Miami will not play as well as they did against Portland after winning by 60, and Washington's two best players are coming off an absolutely abysmal shooting performance.
The Heat are likely to still be without two of their top shooters in Herro and Robinson, and will not put up a number that strong again. Meanwhile, everyone knows the Wizards are bad, but Kuzma and Poole are not typically 8-37, and 1-14 from deep bad. The Wizards have covered in three of their last five games, and are starting to get stronger performances from Avdija and Kispert. The Wizards have some talent, and will be able to keep this one with the 10.5 pt spready here at home.

Take the Wizards plus the points.