The Nats Gore has been mostly excellent this season, and his xERA matches up with his actual ERA, indicating he's been as good as advertised. With no underlying negative regression hiding under the surface, he should be a good bet to outpitch Peterson on Monday.

Unlike Gore, Peterson's Expected ERA suggests negative regression is looming. His 6.12 xERA is 2.45 points higher than his actual ERA. New York was red-hot in June but is bound to cool off after a tough series with the Astros plus now playing on the road.

I'll bet on the Nats on Monday evening in D.C.