Sometimes the best plays don’t jump off the page—they show up in the details. Friday’s Pirates vs. Reds game in Cincinnati is one of those spots. The total’s sitting at 8.5, but with the cold, overcast weather rolling in and temps dipping into the low 30s by game time, this has all the makings of a quiet night at the plate. No wind blowing out, no warm air to help the ball carry—just a tough night for hitters to get anything going.

Brady Singer’s been dialed in, and he’s more than capable of keeping this Pittsburgh lineup in check. On the other side, Bailey Falter’s numbers don’t tell the full story, and against a Reds offense that’s been hit-or-miss, he could easily settle in. Add in the chill, the cloud cover, and two bullpens that can keep the game from getting out of hand late, and this one has under written all over it.

We’re riding the weather and trusting the pace—UNDER 8.5 is the move. Let’s keep stacking winners.