Louisville has a top-ranked defense and as they say, defense travels. USC hasn’t had much of a defense either on the road or at home. The Trojans will be facing the Louisville defense with a backup quarterback and runningback. When going with a quarterback that hasn’t seen a lot of action, teams turn to the running game but USC will be going up against the 14th-ranked Cardinals rush D. Louisville will also be missing key portions of their offense but will still have veteran QB Jack Plummer. Key Louisville players are entering the NFL draft but will look to improve their stock worth here. USC not only lost Williams for this game but also their top running back, their receiver with the most touchdowns, and a starting cornerback will miss this game as well. They are also missing extra pieces on defense that were not very good when at full strength. USC went 3-9 ATS this season.  USC has only covered once since September 23rd. With the advantage at quarterback and defense for Louisville. I like them to win and cover over an unmotivated USC team. 

Play on Louisville. This is a 3% play.