I'm on the Lions +7.5 @ San Francisco for these reasons:

- The total is high. 50.5 points clearly tells us that this will be a back and forth affair, and on gritty games like that, I will trust Dan Campbell to successfully stay within a TD in this game, should they lose it. But if you tail my picks, we only bet on underdogs if we believe they can win.... And the Lions can win this game.

- San Fran has not definitively won a game by more than 7 points the last 3 home games played.

- Lions are 13-6 ATS this season. One of the best covering teams in the NFL. The best underdogs.

- I do not see the Lions abandoning the run here, which gives them the edge in terms of clock management, preventing possessions from San Francisco who are Big Play competitors. If the Lions prevent big play opportunities, they'll keep this game tight.

- Lions are offensively equipped to go toe to toe with San Fran if this does become a shootout, being top 5 in Rushing and Passing Yards. San Franciscos defense has been exploitable through the air but recently through the run as well, seeing what Aaron Jones did to them (108 rushing yards).

- Do believe the turnovers by Jordan Love (2 interceptions) were the reasons the 49ers won to advance to this NFC championship game, but Goff has been a model QB at keeping the ball safe, so it's likely he won't ruin the game for the Lions.

- Lions are 3-1 ATS in the last 4 away games.

Official Play: Lions +7.5

Side Bet: Over 50.5

Side Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD

Hail Mary: Brock Purdy over 0.5 Interceptions