The Royals can get to Bello and the Red Sox bullpen. Bello has a terrible ERA of 4.58 and it is higher on the road. He’s giving up too many runs and walks and he is headed for some regression. The Royals are hitting right handed pitchers well so they will get to him and the Red Sox’ bullpen average has fallen as a team, and that will allow the Royals to get more runs. Boston is one of the top 5 in road offense and they can get to Lugo on the mound for a few runs to take this total over, as he has an ERA of 2.85. However, when facing Boston, he is more susceptible to their bats. He already pitched against the Red Sox in early July this season and gave up 5 earned runs, 1 walk, 1 HR and ten hits. The total has gone Over in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing at home against Boston. The Over is 19-6-3 in their last 28 meetings in Kansas City and their first game in this series already went well over the total. Boston has gone Over the total in nine of their last nine games when the total is set between 9.0-10.5. Both offenses are hitting right now and averaging between 6-7 runs per game in their last eight games, respectively.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.