When it comes down to this matchup, I simply trust Baker Mayfield (career-high 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns) and Tampa Bay more than Jayden Daniels and Washington. Rookie QBs have lost seven straight road playoff games and the Commanders have not finished strong, going 6-11 ATS in the 4th quarter of their games this season. They lost by 17 straight-up to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and Bucs HC Todd Bowles' team will have a better plan for Daniels this time around after he ran for 88 yards and 2 TDs. Let's not forget, the Bucs have stepped up vs. good competition this season, beating Detroit, Philadelphia and the LA Chargers.

This is a veteran Tampa team at home giving just three points against a rookie QB. A lot of people might be off this Bucs team after last week's showing vs. NOLA, but I'm not. Bowles may need to win this game to keep his job and Mayfield will be motivated to avoid getting labeled a stat-padder. With Bucky Irving (96.8 rush yards per game over the final four weeks) toting the rock, TB will have the ground game edge that will wear down the Washington run defense (26th in DVOA and 29th in adjusted line yards) and bleed the game clock. The Bucs have done a great job winning the time of possession, ranking 2nd in average TOP (32:07), and Irving has big play ability, ranking 7th in explosive rush rate (6.8%) and 4th in yards after contact per attempt. Besides, the Washington DBs are in for a long night defending Mike Evans and company.

Lay the three points with Tampa Bay on Sunday night!