This spread should be closer to Bama -7...

The Rebels are a fiery team with a great coach (Chris Beard) who demands defensive intensity from his players. As a result, Ole Miss is a well-balanced squad (31st in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency). The Rebels have six players averaging eight-plus PPG, including a couple of terrific point guards, Sean Pedulla (14.1 PPG, 3.6 APG and 2.3 SPG) and Jaylen Murray (11.8 PPG and 4.1 APG). They will expose a Crimson Tide team that ranks in the 17th percentile defending pick and rolls, per Synergy.

Alabama will also need to take great care of the basketball against a Mississippi squad that's 17th nationally in forced turnovers and 2nd in potential quick points scored off steals. The Rebels also play good perimeter defense, as teams only shoot 29% from three against them. 48 percent of Alabama's shots come from long range, so this will be a huge difference-maker today.

With the spread at 12.5, I see excellent value in a wager on the Rebels to cover.