I believe the Bucs are getting a little too much love from the general public and bettors in particular. As my son would say, “Last year, the Bucs were the smartest horse.” Translation: They were the best team in a terrible division and caught the Eagles at the tail end of one of the worst slides in NFL history.

Make no mistake, though, Baker Mayfield is still an average-at-best quarterback and now he is going to be without Dave Canales, who is moving on to be the Head Coach in Carolina. Canales turned Geno Smith from zero to hero and deserved a big chunk of the credit for Baker’s resurgence. There is sure to be a learning curve for the offense and it’s likely to be a little choppy in Week 1.

The Bucs defense wasn’t great last season and they likely aren’t getting much better after losing three starters. There’s a trend to play against rookie QBs on the road, but Daniels is a different kind of signal-caller since his mobility is such a huge part of his game.

There are also several trends that point toward the Commanders:
Week 1 dogs that won between four and six games the previous season are 71-35 (67%) against the spread. Head Coach Todd Bowles is 7-14 (33%) as a favorite of a field goal or more in his career. Mayfield as a favorite is 14-26 (35%) against the spread in his career. Finally, Week 1 road underdogs that failed to make the playoffs in the previous year are 50-30 (63%) since 2012.