I’m not a gambler, I am a sports bettor - an important distinction. A gambler plays the odds, chasing the thrill of the jackpot. Gamblers typically bet for recreational purposes too. I bet on my intuition, skill, and knowledge as a handicapper for one reason and one reason alone: to make money. If I don’t consistently end the day with more money in my account than I started, I would get out of the business.
There is no thrill in losing, and the only reward I need from being right is cash in my account. Period.
In my 40 years of sports betting, I’ve seen a lot. It started as primarily intuition - best stats you could get in the 80s as a “regular Joe” was the box scores in the papers, and that’s hardly enough to build on. But, I taped every football game, every week, and would watch them over and over to see what really made the difference between winning and losing - and more importantly, winning against the spread. For example in football, box scores won’t tell you that 120 yards, six 1st downs, and a TD were in garbage time while their opponent was playing prevent defense, looking to run the clock out while up 3 TDs.
The 90s brought affordable computing, and the 00s made them affordable consumer products. Now the data that Vegas and major betting syndicates were using became accessible to the general public. Anyone with a mind for numbers and a little computer science background could really compete against Vegas for the first time in history. I was there for that and readily adapted to the spreadsheet lifestyle, and made some serious coin in the process.
But, all good things must come to an end and Vegas upped their game. You know your data and processes are solid when you routinely are projecting the same outcomes / lines as Vegas’ opening lines. It's still possible to find an edge here and there but it doesn’t take Vegas long to close the gap. Frankly, you really know you’re onto something when moments after you place your wagers, the line shifts against it. It is never long after that before the books figure it out and the opening line starts to reflect the previously discovered edge.
These days, I spend less time chasing those small margin edges and more time studying the footage, trends, and stats to holistically form a guess - albeit a highly qualified and educated one - on the approximate outcome of a game. My standard deviation for these predictions vary by sport, but universally are very tight.
More often than not, it is within a point of the Vegas opening line. That’s not enough value to place a bet, it's too much like gambling at that point. So I watch the lines like a hawk, and I wait for the public to move in the wrong direction - giving me enough points on the line to make the bet a worthwhile one.
I even employ a unique money management approach where I will place incrementally higher wagers on a line as it moves more and more into my favor. This risk adjusted approach has helped lead to much higher ROI in the long run.
Bottom line: I’m sharing my bets with the public in an effort to help my fans, and my clients, turn profitable days into profitable weeks into profitable seasons. Because that’s what sports betting is all about. I won’t claim I am the smartest person in the room, or necessarily the most experienced, but this is my full time job and I’ve been doing this for 40 years. That is what you get when you buy my picks.