#476 ASA PLAY 8* ON Atlanta -3 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - We’re not high on Chicago this year and the fact they started the season 2-0 is a bit fraudulent we feel. They’ve beaten 2 teams that are currently 0-4 combined (Giants & Lions) and they’ve struggled to do so. They trailed 23-6 @ Detroit entering the 4th quarter and miraculously won with 3 fourth quarter TD’s vs a banged up Lion defense. Last week they played host to the Giants and held on for dear life winning 17-13 vs a team that lost starting RB Barkley and WR Shepard during the game. Even with that, the Giants were on the Chicago 10-yard line with a chance to win as time expired. The Bears were outgained in those 2 games by a combined 721 to 667 and on a YPP basis as well (5.4 to 5.1). The Falcons have started the season 0-2 and this now becomes a must win for this team. Just as we feel the Bears 2-0 start is a bit of a farse, we also look at the winless Falcons as much better than their record. Chicago has played 2 bottom feeders this year as we mentioned, while Atlanta had faced Seattle & Dallas and could have won either. Last week’s loss at Dallas was a tough one and we all know about the botched onside kick situation at the end of the game which led to the Cowboys winning in a game they never led until that point. A week earlier Atlanta lost to Seattle but outgained the 2-0 Seahawks by 506 to 383 but were shut out on downs 4 times (0 for 4 on fourth down) and had 2 key turnovers. Atlanta looks like they are one of the better offenses in the NFL already averaging 6.0 YPP and Chicago will have trouble keeping up here with their offense which we feel is one of the worst in the NFL. Defensively the Falcons have struggled but let’s remember they’ve faced 2 of the top offenses in the NFL (Dallas & Seattle) and Chicago is nowhere near that level. We think they’ll look much better on that side of the ball on Sunday. The Bears have covered just 3 of their last 14 games dating back to last year and just 1 of their last 7 road games. Teams that start the season 0-2 SU are a money making 33-16 ATS in their 3rd game of the year dating back to 2014. During that same span, teams that start 2-0 SU are 21-26 ATS in their 3rd game and both fall in line with this game. This is a terrible spot for an overvalued team coming into Atlanta. Lay this small number as the Falcons roll.