ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Tuesday at 2:08 PM ET

Give the Marlins credit for getting by a Cubs team struggling at the plate but now they face a tough Braves team. Lets not forget that Miami started this season 7-1. That means they went 24-28 the rest of the way in the regular season. Of course that is a big reason the Braves are a -200 favorite on the money line in this game. Where we get the value in Game One of this series is by grabbing Atlanta on the run line. We'll lay the -1.5 runs to get the plus money return (currently +105) in this one. Note that the Marlins 29 regular season losses this year featured 21 by 2 or more runs. The Braves 35 wins featured 24 by 2 or more runs. The point is that the vast majority of wins for the Braves and losses for the Marlins came by a multi-run margin. The Braves have the better lineup, the better bullpen and now let us take a look at the starting pitchers in this one. Fried for Atlanta against Alcantara for Miami. Alcantara compiled a 5.40 ERA in his day game starts this season and this is a pitcher that amassed a 6-14 record in 2019. The Braves Fried has much more post-season experience in comparison with Alcantara and also he is a combined 24-6 the past two seasons. Fried went 17-6 last season and he is 7-0 this season with a 2.25 ERA. Per our computer math model this one is a blowout win for the favorite. Bet the Atlanta Braves -1.5 runs in early afternoon action Tuesday.