#473/474 ASA PLAY ON Under 48.5 Points – LA Rams @ Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Two of the top defenses in the NFL facing off here and we grab the UNDER. The Bucs & Rams rank 2nd and 3rd in total defense, 1st & 2nd in YPP defense, 8th & 3rd in scoring defense, and 1st & 5th in rush defense. The offenses have had their moments but when facing top defenses, they’ve both been held in check for the most part. Tampa has played 3 top 10 defense (YPP defense) and they’ve scored 3, 19, and 23 points in those games. The Rams have scored more than 24 points only once in their last 6 games. They’ve faced 3 defenses ranked in the top 10 in total defense and scored 16, 24, and 30 in those games. Their 30 point output was vs Washington. So combining the two they’ve only topped 24 points only once in 6 games vs top tier defensive teams. The Rams rely heavily in the run ranking 8th in rushing yards and 5th in carries per game. They face the #1 rush defense in the NFL here as Tampa has allowed just 76 YPG on the ground on 3.3 YPC. Tampa hasn’t been a great running team this year (23rd in the NFL) and if they do try to establish a ground game, the Rams rank 5th in the NFL allowing just 96 YPG rushing. So the QB’s will play a big role here. The problem is, both defense are very good at pressuring the QB and neither QB is very good under pressure. These 2 defenses are 2nd and 4th in sacks per game and 4th and 5th in sack percentage. Brady has long been known as a poor passer under pressure because he can’t move. This year he is completing only 46% of his passes under pressure which ranks him 29th when we limit it to QB’s who’ve started at least 2 games this year. Goff is worse. He comes in at 38% which ranks him 38th when compared to all other QB’s who’ve started at least 2 games. We anticipate a grinder here with the 2 defenses being the best units on the field. Take the UNDER.