#151 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -7.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - We’re not sure how Detroit stops the Packers in this game. Their defense ranks dead last in DVOA (Football Outsiders), 31st in scoring allowing 30 PPG, and 28th in YPP allowed. Their pass defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL (29th in yards per pass attempt allowed) and they put no pressure on the QB (27th in sack percentage). That’s a terrible recipe vs Aaron Rodgers and this red hot offense. The Packers have scored 31, 41, and 30 points their last 3 games vs solid defenses (Indy, Chicago, and Philly). What will they do this Sunday when they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL? If the first meeting is any indication, it will be ugly. The Packers put up 42 points in that game on nearly 500 total yards. Detroit’s defense has given up 71 points in just the last 2 weeks including 30 points to Chicago. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell led the Lions to a win last week at Chicago, but let’s face it there was some serious luck involved. They were down 30-20 with less than 3:00 minutes remaining in the game and Chicago had the ball and a 10 point lead. The conditions for offense in the dome will be perfect and Green Bay is averaging 37 PPG this season in the dome and many of those games are facing defenses a lot better than this Detroit team (New Orleans & Indy). GB is going to score a vast majority of their possessions and the Detroit offense is going to have to keep up. Matthew Stafford still has a bad throwing hand, his top RB Swift is most likely out again, and his top WR Golladay remains out. Detroit has a grand total of 1 home win this season and that was a 3 point win vs Washington on a last second field goal in a game the Lions were outgained by nearly 100 yards. Rodgers owns the NFC North with a 45-26 ATS record in his career. A win here locks up the division and we like the Packers to roll here.