#159/160 ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – Houston @ Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - This total is set too low. We understand the season numbers for Chicago say bad offense, good defense. Those numbers have changed over the last few weeks. Trubisky is back at starting QB and like him or not, when he starts this year they are averaging 26 PPG. Since taking over for Foles a few weeks ago, the Bears have scored 25 vs the Packers and 30 vs Detroit. That success should continue here vs a bad Houston defense. The Texans rank 27th in defensive DVOA (Football Outsiders), 30th in total defense, and 24th in scoring defense. Last week they lost to Houston 26-20 combining for 46 points, however that was extremely deceiving. The score at halftime was 24-20 and they scored a grand total of 2 points in the 2nd half despite plenty of chances. The Houston offense played well averaging 6.4 YPP in that game vs one of the better defenses in the NFL. With this total set at 45.5 or 46, we look at Houston’s full season and see their games have reached at least 46 points in 10 of their 12 games this year and one of those was @ Cleveland in gale force winds (the other they totaled 44 points vs Jacksonville). They should have success vs a Chicago defense that is trending down. They’ve allowed 41 and 34 points the last 2 weeks vs GB and Detroit. Going back further, the Chicago defense has allowed at least 24 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Weather can be a problem in Chicago this time of year, but not for this game. Temps in the mid 30’s and very light winds (5 MPH). With this game close to a pick-em a final score of 23-23 puts this at or over the number depending on your line. We think both teams top 23 points in this game. Take the OVER.