ASA top play on 10* OVER 9.5 Los Angeles Angels @ Arizona Diamondbacks, 4:10 PM ET - The Diamondbacks have been the worst team in baseball this season but the over trend in their games continues and this is the perfect spot for another one. Arizona actually has the #1 slugging percentage, .445, in day games this season. Also, the Diamondbacks rank in the top ten in the majors for slugging percentage against left-handed pitching and in home games. That being said, there is solid value here in going against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. He has some good numbers this season but those have come at home. He did have one road start and was successful in that one but he got hit harder than you would think just from looking at the box score and Sandoval had to work out of multiple jams in that one. In his only road appearance out of the bullpen this season he got hit hard. Last season Sandoval was 1-4 with a 6.87 ERA on the road. In the prior year, his rookie season, he was winless in 5 games (4 starts) on the road and had a 6.52 ERA. The over is a perfect 8-0 in Arizona's last 8 home games. The Diamondbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs in those games. Arizona has allowed an average of 6.2 runs per game in those home contests. With Jon Duplantier getting the start here, those runs against numbers are unlikely to improve! Duplantier is winless with a 10.03 ERA in his 3 starts this season. His only prior MLB experience was in 2019 when he pitched in 15 games and opponents hit .283 against him. He has labored this season and Duplantier has yet to complete 5 innings in a start. Considering the Diamondbacks bullpen has a 4.62 ERA and a majors-worst .271 BAA, that spells trouble for Arizona in this one. The Diamondbacks are on a 5-32 run but they can hit Sandoval here and that is why the over is the play. Arizona gives up tons of runs but they can score plenty too especially in a day game at home. Also, the Angels hot bats have helped lead the way to an 8-2 run in which Los Angeles has scored an average of 7.4 runs in the 8 victories. This total is in the 10 range but our computer math model shows this one getting to double digits with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs in this one. Bet Over