#955/956 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 10 Runs – St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds, Sunday at 1:10 PM ET – Sonny Gray has strong full season numbers but is off a rough start in which he allowed 5 earned runs in just under 5 innings versus the Brewers. Gray has really struggled against the Cardinals in recent meetings, one this season and his final one against them last season, and allowed at least 5 earned runs in each start. This was despite those outings totaling only 4 and 1 / 3 innings. St Louis has averaged scoring nearly 5 runs per game last 6 and behind Gray is a Reds bullpen with a 6.00 ERA in home games this season. The Cardinals start Johan Oviedo and he is 0-5 in his 12 starts this season! Oviedo has a 5.92 ERA on the road this season and the Reds are scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game at home this year. Oviedo has a 5.19 ERA in his two career starts against Cincinnati and they just faced him early last month. The Cardinals bullpen has a 4.72 ERA this season in road games. The O/U was on a 5-2 run in Reds games before yesterday's game stayed under the total. This total is in the 10 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about a dozen runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over