#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 8.5 Runs – Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:10 PM ET – The Rays Michael Wacha got hammered by the Mariners earlier this season. Wacha is off a good start versus the Yankees but he entered that outing having served up 8 homers over his last 4 appearances. Now he faces a Seattle team that hit him hard in June and, though off a low-scoring loss yesterday, had been rolling. Before the 4-3 loss yesterday, the Mariners had won 5 of 8 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. The Rays bats also had been hot before a lackluster showing in yesterday's 3-2 win over the Red Sox. TB has won 9 of 12 games and scored an average of 6.3 runs in these dozen games. Tampa Bay will take advantage of facing a pitcher who is finally regressing to the mean. Chris Flexen has good numbers this season for the Mariners but he was getting better results than he deserved overall based on metrics. The over is 7-0 in his road starts this season and he is off back to back losses in which his strikeouts continue too low and he was hit hard and allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1 / 3 innings! The over is 3-0 the last 3 games between these teams when meeting in Tampa Bay. This total is in the 8.5 range and our computer math model shows this one getting into a range of about ten runs scored with each club enjoying success at the plate and having a solid shot of getting to 5 runs apiece which, of course, would mean at least 11 runs (6-5 final at a minimum) in this one. Bet the Over