ASA top play on 10* UNDER 52 Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - This is obviously a huge marquee showdown between two teams capable of winning it all in 2022-23 and excitement is high for the start of the season. The oddsmakers know it and have set this number slightly higher than it should be. With that in mind we will play Under here in a game our computers are predicting 48 total points scored. Before we talk about the teams let’s address points or scoring in the NFL. Scoring in the NFL dropped last season after teams averaged 24.8PPG two years ago when there weren’t fans in the stands due to Covid. That in turn made it easier for QB’s to audible and there were fewer offensive penalties. Last season we saw a return to the norm or 23PPG per team or 46-total points per game. Those numbers are more in line with 2013-2019 numbers. Both teams are slightly faster in pace than average (Rams 11th, Bills 14th) but they clearly aren’t overly fast by league standards. When it comes to defense, these two teams are two of the best in the league. The Bills were 1st DVOA last season, the Rams finished 5th. The Bills had the 11th best Yards Per Point defense in the NFL, the Rams were 13th. The Bills allowed the least number of points per game a year ago at 18.3PPG, the Rams were 9th best giving up just 21.3PPG. Both teams have big play capability on offense with Josh Allen and Matt Stafford but in the opener, we see both defenses dominating. Take the value and UNDER in this one.