#461 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +7 over Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - The Bengals are coming off a Super Bowl loss and we all know what that means. Teams that lose the Super Bowl are just 4-18 ATS in their season opener the next season (since 2000). The Bengals made a surprise run to the Super Bowl after finishing 10-7 on the season with a YPP differential of +0.1 which ranked them in the middle of the pack in the NFL. The beat the Steelers in both games last season rather convincingly, yet Pittsburgh outgained them in the 2 games combined. Prior to that the Steelers had won 14 of the previous 16 meetings. Pittsburgh’s defense was really banged up for much of last year and fell off drastically. They are healthy now, including TJ Watt, and we expect them to jump up and be much better on that side of the ball. When they were healthy in 2020, this defense ranked in the top 3 in YPG and YPP allowed. Trubisky will start at QB and while he’s not great by any means, he does have plenty of experience and it not a drop off from last year’s Big Ben who struggled. This is a huge division rivalry and week 1 division underdogs are 29-9 ATS the last 38 and week 1 underdogs of more than 6 points are 43-27 ATS since 2000. We expect a tight one and we’ll grab the points.