#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold.  The fact we can get a reasonable -155 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one!  The Royals are having a very rough season and have lost 54 of 74 games this season and that includes having lost 32 of 40 games against teams with a winning record!  Here they are matched up with one of the best teams in MLB and the Rays have been particularly tough at home where they have won 32 of 40 games.  So here you have an 80% play on situation versus an 80% play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses.  What about wins and losses by 2+ runs?  Well, the key here is that Tampa Bay has seen 75% of their wins (39 of 52) come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Royals have seen 83% of their losses (45 of 54) come by at least at 2-run margin.  Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers.  This is a case of hot versus not and now, how about those pitchers?  The Rays are expected to start McClanahan here and he has been dominating this season.  McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.12 ERA and he is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay. Last year he held hitters under a .200 batting average and he had a strong 2.54 ERA on the season.  The Royals are taking a bullpen approach to this game with Jose Cuas likely to get the start but only going to go about 1 inning as an opener.  So what about the KC bullpen since we will be seeing plenty of it in this one?  The Royals relief pitching is a combined 10-17 with a 4.82 ERA and the late inning pen has been bad too with 10 of 20 saves being blown.  We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one even at a -155 price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!