#797 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Kentucky +7.5 over Wright State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These 2 just met last Saturday and now they face off in the Horizon League Tournament. In their game last Saturday, Wright State played at home (same scenario as tonight) and they won by 6 points over NKU. The Raiders shot 54% in the game (51% for Northern Kentucky) and outscored the Norse by 18 points for the 3 point line (+9) and from the FT line (+9) and even with that big advantage the game went to the wire. NKU was playing great basketball heading into that game winning 6 of 7 prior to Saturday’s tight loss. Wright State finished 1 game ahead of Northern KY in the Horizon League with a 13-7 record (12-8 for NKU) and this line is set to high due to that + the fact that WSU won both regular season meeting (by 6 & 7 points). The Raiders are a terrible defensive team, one of the worst in the country, ranking 343rd in defensive efficiency, 351st in eFG% allowed, and 355th in PPG allowed giving up 80 PPG. Really tough to lay this many points in a win or go home situation vs a team that is much better defensively. NKU ranks 2nd in the Horizon League in defensive efficiency and 3rd in eFG% allowed. The Norse allow just 71 PPG which is 2nd best on the conference (league games) while Wright State’s defense is giving up 82 PPG in conference play (last in the league). According to statistics from KenPom.com, when the “better team” (in this case, Wright State) won both previous matchups (which they did), the third game becomes a true toss-up — the better teams win only about 49.3% of the time in these cases. Getting 7.5 points is a great buffer here in a game we think is close. Take the points with Northern Kentucky.