#186 ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida +2.5 over Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We just don’t trust this Miami team coming out of the gates. Lots of hype around the Canes with multiple transfers securing key spots including QB Ward who came over from Washington State. We think it will take them some time to get acclimated to each other and let’s face it, while Miami HC Cristobal is a very good recruiter, he is not a great head man. He has been in charge of the Canes for 2 years with plenty of talent to do very well and his record here is just 14-11. While U of M loaded up on transfers, we don’t like the continuity of this team ranking outside the top 100 in returning letterman and return tackle percentage on defense. Again, they may struggle early in the year starting on Saturday. Florida is coming off a tough 5-7 season in 2023 (5 of their losses came vs teams ranked 19 or higher) and nobody is talking about this team which is just how they like it. The Gators return a bunch of production on offense ranking 36th nationally in returning yards. Graham Mertz is back at QB and he finished 3rd in the nation in completion percentage last year at 73%. It looks like top RB Johnson (2,500 career yards) will play here after missing some camp after a minor knee surgery. We’ve been hearing good things coming out of camp about the Gator defense, especially the defensive line which is very deep this season. Miami seems to be overrated every year. They bring in players in highly rated players in recruiting and the portal and it rarely transfers to the field The Canes were ranked in the top 25 entering the season in 2018, 2021, and 2022 and finished outside the rankings in each of those season. The Swamp is a tough place to play with the Gators winning 28 of their last 35 games here, and Napier is 11-2 ATS in his career as a small home dog (+5 or less). We take the Gators getting points at home on Saturday.