#198 ASA PLAY ON Troy -8 over Nevada, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great line value on Troy in this game. The Trojans were -15.5 a week ago in this match up and because Nevada played SMU close last week as a 27 point dog, this line has dropped through 2 key numbers 14 & 10. Getting the Trojans at home under -10 is a very solid value. Looking closer at Nevada’s 29-24 loss at home vs SMU last week reveals that the game shouldn’t have been all that close. SMU was +6 first downs, +110 total yards, and nearly outgained the Wolfpack by 2.0 YPP. Now after leaving it all on the field on Saturday, Nevada must travel across the country to play in 90 degree heat. A tough ask for a team who had a win total of just 2.5 games this year, the lowest in college football. Troy is replacing many of their key players plus they have a new coaching staff in place which should be a benefit as Nevada won’t be sure what to expect on either side of the ball. Meanwhile, the Trojan staff has a full game of film on Nevada and that has proven to be beneficial. In fact, over the last decade, teams playing their first game of the season vs teams that have already played a game have covered 56% of the time, so advantage Troy here. We expect another high level defense from Troy this season who finished in the top 10 nationally last season in efficiency (YPP allowed). Nevada will struggle offensively in this game. Despite their new coaching staff (Nevada has a new staff as well), Troy is simply a solid program that has a record of 23-5 the last 2 seasons. The Trojans win this one by double digits.