#646 ASA PLAY ON Florida -125 over Alabama, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bama in a tough spot here playing their 4th game in 11 days with 3 of those games coming on the road. The Tide were knocked off at home on Saturday vs Tennessee which was a huge game that was a battle for 1st place in the SEC. With the home loss Bama it will now be really tough for Bama to catch the Vols with a 1 game deficit with 2 games remaining and they lost both games to Tennessee this year so they’d lost the tie breaker as well. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Alabama is a bit flat in their final road game after that disappointing loss on Saturday. They’ve shown to be vulnerable on the road with 3 SEC losses away from home and their best conference win was @ Mississippi State who sits at 8-8 in league play. Every other team they beat on the road has a losing conference record. Florida is also off a loss @ South Carolina on Saturday. It was a game the Gators led by double digits in the 2nd half, outrebounded and outshot (48% to 47%) the Gamecocks but were -11 made FT’s in the 6 point loss. Now back at home where they are 13-1 SU with their only loss coming by 2 points to Kentucky. Their average score at home is 87-71 so winning by +16 PPG. These 2 just met @ Alabama in late February and the Gators gave the Crimson Tide their toughest conference home game of the season (minus Bama’s home loss to Tennessee on Saturday). The Gators led for much of the game including by 10 points with under 8:00 minutes remaining in the game but lost 98-93 in OT. In that loss, the Gators led at half and Bama didn’t take their first lead of the 2nd half until 4:00 remaining in the game. Prior to their game vs Florida, the Crimson Tide were undefeated at home in SEC play winning by an average margin of +21 PPG. Catching Florida in this spot as a home dog (line opened Bama -1) is some solid value in our opinion. The Gators have been a home dog only 1 other time this year vs a very good Auburn team and Florida rolled the Tigers 81-65. Even with the line having flipped to Florida as a small favorite at the time of this posting, we’ll call for the Gators to get a home win on Tuesday