#730 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +1.5 over Michigan State, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Bulldogs as a slight favorite so we’ll take the value with Mississippi State. Sparty comes in winning just 2 of their last 7 games and those wins weren’t overly impressive by 4 points at home vs Northwestern who played without 2 starters and in the Big 10 tourney vs Minnesota who tanked at the end of the season losing 6 of their last 7 games. Michigan State only had one quad 1 win in conference play and that was a home win vs Illinois. They weren’t a great shooting team (11th eFG% in the Big 10) and while they do shoot it well from 3, the Bulldogs defend the arc as well as anyone in this tourney ranking 6th nationally allowing just 29%. The Spartans, normally a good rebounding team, are not adept in that stat this season ranking outside the top 140 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That’s where Mississippi State can take advantage in this game to get some extra possessions as they are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation (21st). Mississippi State has high level wins over 2-seed Tennessee (twice) and 4-seed Auburn in SEC play. Both high level defenses facing off here, both in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, so no big edge on that side of the ball. Much is made of Izzo in March and while he is a great coach, we think that’s overblown. Much of that success was many years ago. In fact Michigan State hasn’t made it past the first weekend in 5 of the last 7 NCAA tournaments. We like the Bulldogs to win this game so we’ll take the point.