#743 ASA PLAY ON Morehead State +12 over Illinois, Thursday at 3:10 PM ET - This line opened Illinois -13 and has dropped to -12 so we’ve lost a little line value but still like Morehead State in this spot. Illinois just completed a 3 games in 3 days situation to win the Big 10 tourney on Sunday. Now playing on Thursday as a heavy favorite is not ideal and it very well could be a letdown spot for the Illini after winning the conference tourney. Tough to lay this many points with a defense that simply hasn’t been good vs an offense that can shoot the ball. The Illini defense ranks 98th in efficiency on the year per Bart Torvik, however since February 1st they rank 158th in that metric. They’ve allowed at least 80 points in 9 of their last 13 games. Morehead ranks 35th in the country in eFG% and they hit their 3’s at a 36% rate. They should be able to hit some 3’s in this game vs an Illinois defense that ranks 259th defending the arc. The Eagles are also a veteran team that has good size and rebounds the ball well (top 85 in both offensive and defensive rebounding). They also can get it done defensively holding opponents to 39% from the field this season which ranks as the 6th best mark in the nation. Lastly, Morehead will try and slow this game to a crawl as they rank 335th in adjusted tempo and they’ll do everything they can to keep Illinois out of transition. The Eagles have the recipe to keep this game closer than most think and we’ll take the hefty points.