#973/974 ASA PLAY ON Over 8.5 Runs – San Diego Padres @ Boston Red Sox, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Expected starters are Tanner Houck for the Red Sox and Michael King for the Padres. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as some overall metrics are pointing to the over here including a pair of hot hitting teams! Both the Padres and Red Sox rank in the top 5 in the majors for slugging percentage over the last 30 days. As for Boston starter Houck, he has solid numbers this season but has been hit a little harder over his last 3 starts including 2 of those at home. Fenway Park is friendly to hitters and the weather looks great today too and the lineups should both take advantage. This Padres team put up a 9 spot in the 5th inning yesterday and the lineup has been producing well of late just like the Red Sox lineup too. The Boston hitters here will take advantage of facing Michael King. He has solid numbers on the season but the Padres right-hander has given up 15 hits in 10.2 innings over his last two starts. The key to the 8.5 on this game is these pitchers have low ERA numbers yet they have been getting hit harder recently and these lineups are hot. This is a classic high value situation created within the market. Based on a day game at this park with favorable weather conditions too plus a pair of solid lineups, this total should be higher. We will step in and take advantage of the value. The Padres have won 8 of 9 games and scored 7.5 runs per victory in those 8 wins! The Red Sox are off B2B losses but this followed a 10-2 run and their lineup has led the way. That is a big reason why 11 of last 14 Boston games have totaled at least 9 runs and we look for that trend to continue here. Per our computer math model, highest probability is in the 10 to 12 range for runs in this one. Over is the call in this one Saturday afternoon.