Once upon a time, I thought Jordan Lyles was going to be a good pitcher. That never materialized. Lyles is having another bad season going 1-2 with a 7.09 ERA. That ERA balloons to 11.57 if you go by his last three starts. Opponents have slugged at least one home run in each of Lyles' last 12 starts going back to last season. The Giants rank No. 3 in the majors in home runs. Brandon Belt and Buster Posey have each hit eight homers. 

But I'm not about to lay this high of a price on the Giants since they're pitching Logan Webb. I thought he showed promise during spring training, but he's disappointed so far with a 1-3 record and 5.34 ERA. Webb isn't in good form, giving up nine earned runs during his last 9 2/3 innings. 

The Rangers have shown surprising offense ranking in the top-eight in batting average and homers. This despite playing in their new stadium, Globe Life Park. It's one of the best pitching parks in the majors. Texas has some underrated hitters with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Solak and Nate Lowe. 

Returning to the Rangers' lineup is Khris Davis. This is a huge plus for the Over because Davis is a supreme power-hitter, but a bad fielder. Normally he's a DH, but playing at a National League park he has to be hidden in the outfield like he was in left field on Monday night. 

The weather conditions will be nice with the forecast for temperatures in the high 60's and a slight wind blowing out to center. 

If Lyles and Webb pitch according to form there should be no problem for each of these teams to produce at least four runs apiece. 

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover has his Max Unit False Favorite MLB underdog play going today in addition to this free selection. Stephen is on a 70 percent hot streak on his premium baseball side/run line plays. Don't miss any of Stephen's plays, all of which are guaranteed to win and come with his signature, deep analysis.)