This is a 10* AFC TOW on the UNDER Broncos/Chiefs.

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but on the short week here on Thursday night, I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair.

The Broncos have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four straight after suffering a humiliating 31-21 home loss to the lowly Jets as 2.5-point favs last week. Note though that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Sean Payton and the Broncos are struggling, and for all intents and purposes, this is Denver's "do or die" game. A 1-5 hole would be too big to climb out of. Clearly, the last thing the Broncos can do is to turn this into a shootout and try to hang with Mahomes. Denver has been terrible defensively this year, but it'll be all hands on deck to try and somehow pull off an upset.

And I just don't see KC running up the score here. I think the Chiefs defense though has been great overall, allowing no more than 20 points in any game so far this season.

Russell Wilson has struggled with consistency, and I expect that'll again be the case here in the National spotlight and on the short week.

This one sets up to be a defensive affair, and that's what I'm expecting.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP