This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Bucks.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Revenge: Milwaukee has lost six straight in this series, including a 103-93 setback in Dallas just last week.

Fatigue/letdown spot: Dallas is coming off a couple of back-to-back victories, including an exhausting 117-116 double OT win over Sacramento on Tuesday, followed by a 100-91 win over New Orleans on Wednesday. Now they hit the road for an East Coast game vs. the lowly Bucks, suffice it to say, it's not too hard to imagine the Mavs coming in a bit complacent here and that's exactly what we're banking on with this play.

Desperation levels: Milwaukee on the other hand will be extra motivated to avoid a third straight loss after falling 117-106 at Chicago on Tuesday.

ATS statistics: Note that Milwaukee is in fact 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 at home vs. Dallas.

The bottom line: Desperation vs. contentedness. While we obviously wouldn't be shocked by the outright victory, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the BUCKS.

AAA Sports