The Florida State Seminoles are on the verge of another undefeated season, but they've had some close calls in recent weeks. The public is lining up to bet against Florida State, and the line has come down several points from opening at -10 versus Florida. The way I look at it, they've won even when they've played badly, and I don't think you can count on them playing badly here this week. I think we get great value backing the Noles at home.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - Florida State won in Gainesville by a score of 37-7 last year, and they've won three of the last four meetings with the gators by a double-digit margin.

2. Quarterbacks - Jameis Winston has really struggled in recent weeks, but he's managed to engineer some brilliant come from behind victories. He threw for 327 yards and three TDs in last year's win at Florida. Florida QB Jeff Driskel threw for 164 yards and three TDs last week, but his 10 INTs are one more than his TD total of nine.

3. X-Factor - The Gators are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.

Selection: This is a play on the Florida State Seminoles (8*)