The Dallas Stars are on the rise again having won seven of their last nine games. They've done so thanks to a prolific offense, and more goals are in the cards Monday as they're hosting the league worst Buffalo Sabres. Buffalo has lost nine of its last 10, allowing three goals or more on eight of those occasions. Dallas is an enormous favorite here, but I think the smart money is on the total to go over.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. The Stars Way - We find Dallas sitting 12th in the West, six points back of the final wild card in the conference. When they fail to make the playoffs they can blame sub-par defending as Dallas has allowed 3.15 goals per game which is almost on par with Buffalo's 3.28 goals conceded per game. The only reason the Stars have managed to stay competitive at all is thanks to a prolific offense that has averaged 3.07 goals per game on the season, and both Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin rank among the best in the league for points.

2. Special Teams - Dallas converted on two of its three chances on the man advantage against the Blackhawks top rated penalty kill Saturday. It should be able to run riot here, facing the very worst penalty kill unit in the NHL that is showing less than a 75% success rate. Buffalo has scored in three of its last 13 power play opportunities, and Dallas is not exactly known for its effective penalty kill.

3. X-Factor - Buffalo allowed three goals at Nashville Saturday and the over is 4-0 in its last four games playing on one day of rest.

Selection: This is a play on BUF@DAL to go OVER the total