The Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves for the opener of a three game set at Great American Ball Park Monday night. They split a four-game set in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago as the Reds won the opener of that set 5-1 with the same pitching match-up as tonight. I expect Cincy and Leake to get the better of their opponent tonight as well and I like the price we get on the hosts.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Braves will hand the ball to Shelby Miller (4-1, 1.66 ERA) who is coming off a complete game shut out against the Phillies on May 5. He was tagged for three runs on six hits over seven innings against the Reds in his last start prior though and he was 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA over three starts against Cincinnati last year. The Reds will counter with Mike Leake (2-1, 2.47 ERA) who is coming off back-to-back dominant performances after first hurling eight scoreless innings at Atlanta followed by another eight scoreless innings at Pittsburgh, surrendering just a combined total of eight hits. He is 4-2 in seven career starts against the Braves with a 2.03 ERA.

2. Todd Frazier - The Reds third baseman is second in the National League with 10 home runs, and he's hit home runs off both Atlanta's starter (Miller) and closer (Grilli).

3. X-Factor - Brandon Phillips is 6-for-17 with a homer against Miller over previous at bats.

Selection: This is a play on the Cincinnati Reds (8*)