Nine of the last 11 head-to-head meetings between the Chicago Cubs and the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park have one under the total, but I think the line is set way too low tonight. The Cubs have been swinging hot bats of late and I think we'll see a high-scoring game between two teams fighting for the Wild Card spots in the National League.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Cubs hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (15-6, 2.30 ERA) who by all means are having an impressive season. The 29 year old is off four straight wins and tossed six scoreless innings of a 7-1 home-win against the Braves his most recent start, but he conceded three runs (two earned) on five hits and two walks in 6 2/3 frames at U.S. Cellular Field his last road outing. Arrieta has yielded three walks in four of his last seven starts for a total of 17 over that span. The Giants will counter with Matt Cain (2-3, 5.66 ERA) who's allowed four runs or more in four of his last five starts while making it past to the sixth inning just once. He has a 7.32 ERA in four starts this month with just 12 strikeouts over 19 2/3 innings of work.

2. The Cubs Bats - Chicago has averaged 6.86 runs scored on its own over its last seven games behind a .277 batting average and eight of their last 10 games as a road favorite have sailed over the total. The over is 7-2 in Cain's last nine home starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

3. X-Factor - The Giants have scored just 16 runs over their last six games (all away from home) but they've been up against the elite pitching staff of the Cardinals and the Pirates. Expect an offensive outbreak in front of the home-town crowd tonight.

Selection: This is a play on CHC@SF to go over the total (10*)