The Indianapolis Colts came into the season favored to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but they are just 2-2 heading into Thursday's game at Houston. Their star quarterback Andrew Luck did not play on Sunday, and he could miss more time with a shoulder injury. Matt Hasselbeck did enough to beat the Jaguars at home last week, but playing on the road at Houston might be a tougher ask for the veteran. I like Houston at home in this one.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Arian Foster - The Texans got Foster back last week, but he saw limited touches in a blowout loss. He should get more carries here this week, and he might find plenty of holes in the Colts 25th ranked run defense. Indianapolis allowed the Jaguars to run for 142 yards last week.

2. Colts Receivers - Andre Johnson has been a total bust so far since coming over from Houston. He has just seven catches for 51 yards total in four games, and he's been shutout the last two weeks. T.Y. Hilton has 22 catches for 294 yards, but he's still looking for his first TD of the season.

3. X-Factor - Foster has run for 503 yards and five TDs, averaging 6.3 yards per carry in four home games versus the Colts.

Selection: This is a play on the Houston Texans (10*)