The Kentucky Wildcats are a double-digit underdog on the road at Mississippi State this week, but Kentucky has shown plenty of moxie so far in conference play. The Bulldogs are coming off consecutive non-conference wins over LA-Tech and Troy. Their only win versus an SEC team came by a score of 17-9 at Auburn. I don't know how you can justify this Mississippi State team as a double-digit favorite in this spot.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Mississippi State, and the road team has covered the spread in seven of the last nine meetings.

2. Kentucky Defense - The Wildcats are allowing opponents to average just 207 yards passing per game, and they've only surrendered four passing TDs this season.

3. X-Factor - Kentucky quarterback Patrick Towles threw for 390 yards and a pair of TDs against Mississippi State last year. He won't have to worry about the Bulldogs top CB and starting safety, who are both sidelined by injuries.

Selection: This is a play on the Kentucky Wildcats (8*)