The UNLV Rebels will host the Cal Poly Mustangs on Opening Night, and the Rebels are a significant favorite. I think the underdog might prove to be tougher than some expect here, and my money is on the visitors getting points.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Mustangs are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and last year they won outright on the road at San Francisco, Northeastern, Santa Clara and Hawaii.

2. Returning Starters - The Rebels return two starters, but the three that they lost were responsible for most of the production. Four of their top five scorers from last season have moved on.

3. X-Factor - The Rebels committed 18 turnovers in an exhibition game against minnow Whittier, and 12 of those came in the second half.

Selection: This is a play on the Cal Poly Mustangs (8*)