The Iowa State Cyclones are getting a bunch of points in their Sweet 16 match-up versus Virginia, and I think the bookmakers are giving the Cavs way too much respect. The Cyclones have scored an average of 86 points in a pair of blowout wins in the tournament so far, and Georges Niang scored 28 points in both games. My money is on Iowa State plus the points.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - Iowa State has won and covered in each of the last two meetings between the two teams, although that dates back to 2004. The Cyclones are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.

2. Battle on the Boards - The Cyclones should have the advantage on the glass, they've averaged 33.6 rebounds per game over their last five. That's roughly five more than Virginia during the same span. Senior forward Jameel McKay has upped his game of late, pulling in 47 rebounds over his last five games.

3. X-Factor - The Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games, and they've covered the spread in five of their last seven versus the ACC.

Selection: This is a play on the Iowa State Cyclones (10*)