The Notre Dame Irish are a double-digit dog in their Elite 8 match-up versus North Carolina, and this is reminiscent of last year's Elite 8 game versus Kentucky. The Irish gave the 38-0 Wildcats all they could handle in that game, and would lose by a score of 68-66, easily covering a double-digit spread. These two division rivals have a history of playing close games, and four of the last five have been decided by single-digits. My money is on Notre Dame plus the points.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Tar Heels crushed Notre Dame at home in the last meeting, but the Irish had covered the spread in four straight meetings before that. They won three of those games outright, including a 71-70 upset at Chapel Hill last year.

2. Three-Point Shooting - There's no question that the Tar Heels are the better team, but if the Irish can get hot from beyond the arc, it could be the great equalizer. V.J. Beachem is feeling the hot hand, he's 9-of-17 from beyond the arc in the tournament so far. He led all scorers with 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting in the win over the Badgers.

3. X-Factor - Notre Dame has covered the spread in four of it's last five NCAA Tournament games, and is 5-2 ATS in it's last seven as a double-digit dog.

Selection: This is a play on the Notre Dame Irish (10*)