The Phildelphia Phillies came into this home series versus Cincinnati just 1.5 games out of first place in the NL East. The Reds are 12 games back in the NL Central, and they've won just twice in 12 games on the road. My money is on the Phillies in Game 2 on Saturday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Aaron Nola will get the call for the Phillies, and he's coming off an impressive performance. Nola (2-2, 3.13 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits, striking out five over six innings in a win at Miami. He's won four straight, and he's only surrendered four runs total in those games. Tim Adleman makes just his third career start for the Reds, and just his second start on the road.

2. Odubel Herrera - The Phillies center fielder leads the team with a .331 batting average, and he was 4-for-4 in the win over Atlanta on Thursday. He's owning right-handers, batting .348 with three home runs and nine RBIs.

3. X-Factor - The Reds bullpen ranks dead last in the Major Leagues with a 6.34 ERA so far this season.

Selection: This is a play on the Philadelphia Phillies (8*)