The Reds opened the season by sweeping the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-game series home in Cincinnati. The Phillies can return the favor with a win on Sunday after a pair of one-run victories over the Reds on Friday and Saturday, but I think the Reds will fight back in this contest.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to Dan Straily (1-1, 3.47 ERA) who has pitched well since joining the rotation. He held Pittsburgh to two runs on four hits and three walks in six innings of a 3-2 win not factoring in the decision his last start. The Phillies counter with Adam Morgan (1-0, 3.94) who gave up one run and four hits over seven innings in Tuesday's 3-2 win at Atlanta. He had however conceded six runs and 11 hits over nine innings in his first two starts in place of the injured Charlie Morton and the left-hander has yet to convince me about his abilities.

2. Run-line Warriors - The Reds have lost five of their past six, but all but one of these games were decided by one run. The lone decided by more was a 13-7 extra-inning loss against Milwaukee.

3. X-Factor - The Phillies are scoring just 2.73 runs on average home at Citizens Bank Park.

Selection: This is a play on the Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (5*)