Both the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals are sitting top of their respective division, and they have split the first two of a three-game set at Nationals Park. The Cubs tied the series with a 4-3 win last night, and I think the visitors can record another upset in the rubber match.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Nats hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (10-0, 3.03). He has not faced the Cubs since 2013, but Jason Heyward has had plenty of success against the 27 year old with a .412 batting average over 34 at bats. Strasburg was charged with four runs on five hits in seven innings against the Phillies his last start. The Cubs counter with Jason Hammel (7-2, 2.36 ERA) who faced the Nationals at Wrigley on May 7 when he allowed three runs and four hits over five innings in an 8-5 Cubs win without factoring in the decision. He is 9-0 with a 3.16 ERA in 12 career starts against Washington.

2. Cubs vs. Quality Pitchers - Chicago is averaging 5.40 runs per game and it has lit up more than one staff ace on the season. The Cubs have won seven of their last eight when facing a starting pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15.

3. X-Factor - Bryce Harper is 2-for-14 with five strikeouts against Hammels and he is just 5-for-26 in previous meetings with the Cubs this season.

Selection: This is a play on the Chicago Cubs +1.5 (8*)