After sweeping the Mets in New York, the Braves won Game 1 of this home series on Thursday. The Mets responded with an 8-6 win in Game 2, but I like the Braves as a dog in the rubber match. My money is on Atlanta plus the runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Julio Teheran is coming off a complete game (one-hit) shutout over the Mets in New York in his last start. Jacob deGrom was the opposing pitcher on that day, and he gave up three runs on five hits in six innings, losing 6-0.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - His last start against the Mets was no accident, Teheran has pitched well against New York throughout his career. The Mets are batting .188 over a combined 154 at bats against the Braves ace.

3. X-Factor - The Braves are 6-0 in their last six games versus a right-handed starter.

Selection: This is a play on the Atlanta Braves +1.5 (8*)